Thursday, February 12, 2009

Geithner's balls and brains, part 2

I really feel for this guy. He looked and sounded so very scared in his appearances this week. The text of his testimony and interviews sound tentative and afraid. That's with good reason. There is a massive multi-trillion dollar monkey on his back that is called 'toxic assets' in the current vernacular. Everyone from the President of the United States, through the leaders of both parties in both houses of Congress, to every economist with an opinion (which is all of them) is willing to let Timothy Geithner be the lone soul responsible for this nearly impossible problem. The burden is heavier than any in the world right now, and I greatly admire the balls it took for him to accept this challenge.

I don't blame him for looking tentative. The political reality is that the US is not willing or able to consider bank nationalization yet. The toxic assets are still little understood, little discussed in the general public, and are a far way from the 'transparency' the President talks about incessantly. I don't think he has a chance of succeeding, but am watching with very interested eyes and brain cells.

Geithner is trying to simultaneously reassure Congressional leaders, the street, the President, foreign investors and himself that these assets have value, that private buyers will want them, that taxpayers will get off without spending much more, and that FDIC examiners will confirm the health of the banks' balance sheets. I am sure that one or more of these items will not meet expectations. I'm not Limbaughian enough to wish him failure, but I'm not entirely optimistic. Godspeed to you, Secretary Geithner. We need this to work in some way.

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